December 2020 – Holidays Newsletter

Happy Holidays to everyone! Now onto Higher Earnings and Lower P/Es Thank you again for honoring us with your confidence and trust during this, the year of the pandemic. The 2020 pandemic created the biggest economic “bust to boom” cycle of the post-war era, and it’s not over yet. While vaccinations are here for many, for most of the population, … Read More

October 2020 Update on the Markets

The Technical Take Technically, the markets remain in a bullish pattern through the early part of October. However, as flu activity builds into the fall and winter there is fear of a second wave of COVID-19 cases. Canada and the northern Midwest are already beginning to see a spike in new cases in conjunction with colder weather. Offsetting these outbreak … Read More

Massive Economic Stimulus. Benefits One-Year Lagged

With just days to go before the 2020 presidential electionit seems prudent to discuss economic issues facing both political camps as they seek to differentiate themselves to voters. In fact, both camps have drawn a bead on fiscal and monetary policy accommodation to reinvigorate the economy; the significance of which I touch upon in this month’s (pre-election) newsletter.  Below I’ve … Read More

Rotation: A Logical Assessment in a Time of Abundance: Pestilence and Chaos

Inorganic shutdown leads to inorganic recovery By performance, the S&P 500 recently had its best month (August) since 1938- driven by technology growth stocks! That’s good, right? That is bad news. Technology stocks are pricey. Also, history rarely provides repeats in quick succession. So, expect the next wave of investor support to produce an upswing in companies that will do … Read More

August 2020 Newsletter

Sometimes it feels like the world is changing faster than reports get to you. There are so many significant issues affecting the financial markets, interest rates, negative net yields on the 10-year treasury, gold, the decline in the dollar, pandemic-market correlations, fiscal and monetary policy successes, and earnings.  Each of these topics can account for reasons to engage in asset … Read More

Several Scenarios-One Big Happy Unknown Strategy, Discipline & Patience

If you could answer the following question, my job would be much easier. Are we in (1) an extended bull market that still has not ended and is now in the final stages of a melt-up, (2) the beginning of a new bull market after experiencing the shortest bear market in history (government shutdown induced), or (3) a world of … Read More

Recession or Recovery?

So, which is it, recession or recovery? On June 8, 2020 Yahoo Finance posted an article whose headline read, “The US Economy is Officially in Recession.” The following day, June 9, 2020, First Trust Corporation analysts sent an article to me entitled, “The Recession is Over.” You see, if you thought that was a fast recovery, you had no idea … Read More

June 2020 Newsletter

Just the Facts Daily Covid-19 deaths have been cut in half over the past six weeks but remain elevated. Miles driven and retail purchases have clearly troughed and should improve further as the economy reopens. Earnings projections for the S&P 500 are expected to hit $125 for 2020, $150 for 2021, and $165 in 2022; roughly equaling the earnings of … Read More

March 2020 Newsletter

Backdrop, What We Know, Don’t Know, Current Management Strategy and Expectations in a Year A few days ago, I sent you a March 9th report from Credit Suisse Research describing their analysis of S&P 500 earnings for 2020. After accounting for disruptions from the Corona virus and the collapse of pricing in oil, they have concluded the S&P 500 will … Read More

February 2020 Newsletter

Welcome to the month and year of the first palindrome in over 909 years. 02/02/2020 was the first world calendar palindrome since 11/11/1111. If you’re struggling to understand the significance of these historic events, there may be none. This itself is an important recognition as most of our observations may include novelty without importance or, like failed impeachment, the significance … Read More