April 2021 Newsletter

Global Warming Rush and Capital Spending The world is in a rush to reduce global warming. Billions are being spent on a solution. So, follow the money. A financial bonanza awaits those companies with innovative solutions. As well-regarded carbon emissions expert, Bill Gates, admits the world’s democratic industrial nations need to engage capitalistic economies to motivate consumers to move toward … Read More

March 2021 Newsletter

Munger on the Markets When one of the richest and oldest active investors on Wall Street speaks out, it is worth noticing…especially when his perfunctory remarks are famous for worldly wisdom. Internationally-famous Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman, Charlie Thomas Munger (born January 1, 1924) efficiently spoke to the problem of wild speculation on Wall Street this past week. Regarding public damage … Read More

January 2021 Newsletter

The massive increase in federal fiscal-deficit spending during 2020 and now planned for 2021 will create several unintended consequences.  Most immediate is the recognition that the reflation trade is under way and may last for years. Secondarily is the inflation effect, or lack of it, that the Federal Reserve Board wants to create, to impose within the investment community an … Read More

December 2020 – Holidays Newsletter

Happy Holidays to everyone! Now onto Higher Earnings and Lower P/Es Thank you again for honoring us with your confidence and trust during this, the year of the pandemic. The 2020 pandemic created the biggest economic “bust to boom” cycle of the post-war era, and it’s not over yet. While vaccinations are here for many, for most of the population, … Read More

October 2020 Update on the Markets

The Technical Take Technically, the markets remain in a bullish pattern through the early part of October. However, as flu activity builds into the fall and winter there is fear of a second wave of COVID-19 cases. Canada and the northern Midwest are already beginning to see a spike in new cases in conjunction with colder weather. Offsetting these outbreak … Read More

Massive Economic Stimulus. Benefits One-Year Lagged

With just days to go before the 2020 presidential electionit seems prudent to discuss economic issues facing both political camps as they seek to differentiate themselves to voters. In fact, both camps have drawn a bead on fiscal and monetary policy accommodation to reinvigorate the economy; the significance of which I touch upon in this month’s (pre-election) newsletter.  Below I’ve … Read More

Rotation: A Logical Assessment in a Time of Abundance: Pestilence and Chaos

Inorganic shutdown leads to inorganic recovery By performance, the S&P 500 recently had its best month (August) since 1938- driven by technology growth stocks! That’s good, right? That is bad news. Technology stocks are pricey. Also, history rarely provides repeats in quick succession. So, expect the next wave of investor support to produce an upswing in companies that will do … Read More

August 2020 Newsletter

Sometimes it feels like the world is changing faster than reports get to you. There are so many significant issues affecting the financial markets, interest rates, negative net yields on the 10-year treasury, gold, the decline in the dollar, pandemic-market correlations, fiscal and monetary policy successes, and earnings.  Each of these topics can account for reasons to engage in asset … Read More

Several Scenarios-One Big Happy Unknown Strategy, Discipline & Patience

If you could answer the following question, my job would be much easier. Are we in (1) an extended bull market that still has not ended and is now in the final stages of a melt-up, (2) the beginning of a new bull market after experiencing the shortest bear market in history (government shutdown induced), or (3) a world of … Read More

Recession or Recovery?

So, which is it, recession or recovery? On June 8, 2020 Yahoo Finance posted an article whose headline read, “The US Economy is Officially in Recession.” The following day, June 9, 2020, First Trust Corporation analysts sent an article to me entitled, “The Recession is Over.” You see, if you thought that was a fast recovery, you had no idea … Read More